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SBM Sports: Why the Packers Will Win the Super Bowl in 2013

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Since I’ll be in Santorini, Greece next week celebrating my honeymoon (joining the ranks of the married men of SingleBlackMale), I’ll give my prediction for the 2013 NFL season a week early.

This isn’t a “Why [Your Team] Sucks” post, Deadspin.com does a great job with those already. Instead, this is why I think the Green Bay Packers will be hoisting their 2nd Lombardi Trophy come February in The Meadowlands (more on why that’s a dumb place to have a Super Bowl in the coming months).

I’m aware that it’s ridiculous to make a credible prediction before the season starts. There are (theoretically) 31 teams, each with an even shot at winning it all this year. There are also the Jets. But what’s the fun in being a wet blanket? Here are my reasons for believing in the Packers:

Aaron Rodgers –

Apparently everyone forgot how good Rodgers is at some point over the offseason.

In an increasingly pass-heavy league, there has been a natural emergence of quarterbacks with gaudy passing stats. With more guys putting up huge stats, the dance floor has become a sausage fest for so-called elite level QB’s. I argued (unsuccessfully) for Tony Romo’s inclusion among those guys here.

Maybe people are bored discussing Rodgers’ mastery of the position. Maybe it’s more fun to talk about the young QB’s who are coming into their own (Kaepernick, RG3, Luck, etc.). I don’t know. I do know that all these guys are trying to become what Rodgers already is.

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The same thing happened to New York rap a few years ago. People seemed eager to hand the King of New York title to everyone not named Jay-Z as a crop of young guys started to gain a buzz. Turned out there were a lot more Papooses than legit contenders, and Jay Z (no hyphen) went platinum before his release in 2013.

No idea how Kendrick Lamar factors into this metaphor, but you get what I’m saying.

aaronrodgers

They aren’t injured anymore –

This story was somewhat under the radar last season as most NFL fans focused on the sexier headlines throughout the year. The Packers were decimated most of last season, especially on defense. Football Outsiders, the smartest analysts in football, have a fancy stat proving that last year’s Packers were one of the most injured teams of all time and they still made the playoffs.

With everyone healthy and ready to go this season, they are in position to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The Packers’ relative success despite all those injuries shows the overall stability of the team. They have smart people in the front office and coaching staff, and with a healthy roster on deck, they will be as dangerous as ever headed into this season.

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The NFC North ain’t there yet –

Despite improvements, the Packers are still clearly ahead of their division. Every other team has hurdles to get over before they can legitimately challenge Green Bay. The Lions have decades of ineptitude and a shaky secondary. The Vikings have Christian Ponder. The Bears have a new coach and Cutler’s inability to throw to anyone except Brandon Marshall to overcome. Do you trust any of them to put it together over the course of this season? The Bears have the best shot, but I think they’re a year away.

In reality, only the Seahawks, 49ers, and maaaaaybe the Giants have a real shot to threaten Green Bay in the NFC. The playoffs won’t be a cakewalk by any means, but Green Bay should be in control with home-field advantage come December. As the numbers show, Green Bay is a tough place to win in the postseason. I like their odds.

That’s my breakdown of the Packers’ chances going into this season. What do you think? Do they have enough to win it all? If not, who ya got taking the title this season? Hit the comments and let me know.

Football is back everybody!

Comment(44)

    1. @lang, homie I’m chitown born & raised, but this post is accurate to me. I got the packers winning the Super Bowl . The league better hope the packers defense isn’t solid this year or I don’t see anybody beating them. Especially these garbage ass bears lol. Rodgers toughest games will be Seattle or the niners, but he can out play those quarterbacks in his sleep lol. Should be a great season tho. #chitown cheesehead

  1. First Congrats, second I’m hoping for a blizzard for the superbowl so the NFL knows to never do this sh t again, third i dont think the defense is good enough for the packers to win, when you look back to how Colin Kaepernick in his 8th NFL start, ate them alive i dont see how they’ve grew since then. It comes down to matchups, if they have to go through new orleans or atlanta they got it, if its one of the young guns then i dont think so. i got atlanta and the patriots for now…i dont think seattle is all they’re cracked up to be, san fran was my second pick, packers the thrd.

    1. Thanks.

      Me too! I want to see the best players settle it on the field. Rain is one thing, the cold is guaranteed to change the game.

      I don't see ATL as a title contender. They're defense worries me more than Green Bay, and they won a few ridiculous games last year. Their offense is straight though. Seattle/San Fran have the defenses to potentiall stop the Packers. I'm betting on a bounceback due to the crazy injuries last year.

      I have it GB, SF, Seattle, large gap, Atlanta in the NFC. I'll make a final determination on the Giants in November. They're always up and down throughout the season.

    2. joe, joe, why my man why are you selling my raiders short? those guys looks very promising today. sure we have not been to the playoffs in some time but this is a turn around year for them the afc west best to look out. i'm just saying!!!!

      1. Seems like they're trying to bottom out. They let a lot of guys go in the offseason. Plus, who's the QB you feel confident about? I dunno man. I have your Raiders behind the Broncos and Cheifs out west.

        1. i Must go with mr. pryor, this guy is due. sure they lost friday night but he showed the spark that made him great. the raiders have a new look this year.

        2. Pryor definitely ran circles around the Lions a while ago. I'm obligated to root against him as a fan of the Wolverines, but good luck to your boys, lol.

  2. 2nd Lombardi trophy?! We have four and will be gunning for numero cinco.

    As a Wisconsin native and life long cheesehead, I cosign this post.

    1. Yeah…I meant to say "in the last few years." My bad!

      I picked your team to win another one at least, lol. So we're good, right?

  3. My bandwagon team this year will be

    The Patriots. If Tebow gets cut, it will be

    The Redskins.

    I picked the 49ers to win last year, and I got trumped by three points by

    The Ravens.

    So, my SB pick this year will be The 49ers.

    But the Packers definitely have the QB in the league.

    But injuries & luck (NBA has shown us for the past two years) determine the outcome of NFL games just as much as great teams.

    1. my man, teebow made the cut to 75 so you are spared for now, but i still am banking on the raiders to be in the mix this year

  4. HTTR and congrats Joe!! See, I wanna see the past NFC East Champs will take it to the Superbowl, but I think we are 2-3 years away. Personally, I think the Superbowl will be between the Bengals and 49ers. Both teams have superb defenses and offensively, can put up points. Right now, I will put my money on San Franciso just because they did lose Crabtree, who will probably come back in week 10, adding boldin, top 3 TE in Davis, a nice backfield, and risers Moore and Patton at WR's they seem to have it. Remember, a good QB, which Colin is, can make any no name WR look good…

    1. Thanks man. I want the Redskins to be good, but I agree they aren't "there" yet. Plus it's hard to bank on RG3 right now. He'll be fine a few games in, but I think it'll be a rocky start with him not seeing any game reps in the preseason.

      San Fran will definitely be good. Anything can happen in one game in the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they went back to the SB behind that defense. I don't know if I think the Bengals are that good or if I'm sucked into Hard Knocks, lol.

  5. 1) "There are (theoretically) 31 teams, each with an even shot at winning it all this year. There are also the Jets." – well played, sir. Well played!

    2) Congrats on officially taking the plunge here! Give the missus my regards.

  6. While you can't discount A-Rod's beastiness, in reality, Green Bay is 1 injury away from a free-fall because they are such a pass-heavy team. Luckily (or not) for them last year, James Jones had a huge season and Randall Cobb is a solid all-purpose guy. What took them out (and messed me up in my 1 FF league) is Nelson's nagging hamstring and his production (thus targets) going down. But if the 3 of them stay healthy, then yeah the NFC is really a coin toss between GB and SF.

    As a Giants fan, I feel like we're in the same situations as SF though. The success of both teams seems to be in the hands of the receivers; literally. Davis needs to be more present in the offense w/ Crabtree out. I believe this is a contract year for Nicks and since they've already re-up'd Cruz, Nicks is essentially auditioning for his max deal. So fandom aside, SF is stacked on the D and secondary, my Giants? Meh. Like you said Joe, I'll wait til November to jumping on couches for my guys LOL

    1. it's crazy with the Giants. I couldn't be a fan of theirs, have you thinking they are going undefeated in October…have you thinking they'll never win again in November, lol. Let's add it up and make our call about Thanksgiving.

      NFC East is always a war. Will be fun to see who survives it this year.

      1. Haha yeah it's stressful. Only things we can beat our chests about is being the Brady-killers and being undefeated in Cowboys stadium. Other than that, since the Eli era it's arguably been pure luck every year that we did make the post season

        Congrats btw and enjoy Santorini! Excellent honeymoon pick

      2. Giants are just as bad as watching Scandal.

        But they won it all twice & play exceptionally well as underdogs.

        So, after 17 games, lol, we will know exactly who they are! Lol

  7. Unless the Packers run game gets up to a good-great standard, it won't happen. The defense will be better, I'm sure. But you can't win consistently in the playoffs with a pass happy offense for long; It exposes the quarterback too much for possible hits needlessly. If you look at another pass happy offense like the Patriots, you'll notice that the last time they actually won a Super Bowl, they had a good to great back like Corey Dillon. Sure they got to two more Super Bowls, but ran up against the Giants, who had a mean front four that made life hell for Brady, and not coincidentally, Rodgers as well.

    1. Fair enough, but they drafted Lacy to address this. We'll see if he pans out. I think his development will be necessary for Rodgers' longevity like you said. I put more stock into Rodgers' ability to lead them all the way though. I generally agree, but there are some guys who are exceptions.

      1. And he is a great leader in my opinion. I do think it's hard to win consistently without a great run game to keep the pressure off of that O-Line in pass protection especially against teams with deadly D lines.

  8. didn't the packers lose greg jennings and donald driver? isn't their defense still shaky? there are at least 4 teams in the NFC who could go point for point with the packers and have a better defense. San Francisco, Atlanta, Washington and New Orleans. My pick for the NFC representative in the super bowl is Washington. call it biased but you heard it here first.
    My recent post Marriage for All…

    1. You can disagree, that's fine. But no one in the world is putting the Falcons or Saints defense above Green Bay's. Come ooooooon, lol. The Packers defense was injured last year, not as shaky as they seemed.

      The loss of Jennings and Driver will open up more opportunities for Cobb. That's a good thing. One guy can't replace two of course, but more Cobb means they'll be fine. Plus I assume Jordy Nelson will be healthier, he had quad(?) issues last year. More snaps for James Jones is good as well. He's great in the red zone…call him the new Driver. I think they guys they have will be just as good with the opportunities created by the other guys leaving.

  9. As a die hard Packers fan…I can do nothing but agree with you on this. I've been telling everyone I know that we will win it all this year.

  10. This is wrong. All wrong.

    The New England Patriots, and the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady are taking it all this year….count on it…

  11. The Pack may grab it, but they're going to have trouble. If Seattle and San Fran build on what they did last year they'll have a say so. Chicago started off hot but played themselves out of contention. If Jay Cutler can get his head out of his a$$, with that running game and defense they're always dangerous. You have an improved Tampa squad, The Falcons are always tough with their running game and receiving core, and keep in mind the Giants beat them twice on their way to winning the super bowl.
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