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SBM Sports – Three Reasons the Miami Heat Will Not Three Peat

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miami-heat-nba-title-celebration-lebron-james-chris-bosh

Football season is in full swing. The Broncos are good, the Jaguars are terrible.

Enough of that.

The NBA season is just around the corner, which means we are thisclose to the sweet spot on the calendar with the NFL, college football, MLB playoffs, AND pro and college basketball going on. Oh yeah, and hockey. I’m lightheaded.

Going into any NBA season, there are really only a handful of true contenders. This year is no different. Several teams are making the path even easier for the good teams by actively tanking for (by all accounts) the best draft in years.

Any list of contenders has to have the Miami Heat at the top. They are the two-time defending champions, and they still have the best player in the world (sorry, Laker/Kobe fans, it’s true).

Well I got my Miss Cleo on recently, and I’m here to tell you why the Heat will not repeat this season. Let’s take a look in the crystal ball:

The East is loaded –

nba_playoffs_2012_eastern_conference_contenders_by_devildog360-d4zx5wl

For years, the Western Conference in the NBA had seemingly every good player. While 45+ win teams were missing the playoffs out west, sub .500 teams were going through the motions in the playoffs in the L’Eastern Conference. Such was life.

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Over time, though, that balance of power shifted, and the teams in the East collectively got their shit together.

This year there are four (and a possible) teams with a shot at the Eastern Conference title. Miami, Chicago, Indiana, Brooklyn, and the-Knicks-if-things-go-right could all make their way to the Finals. Of course, that means some of these teams will beat each other in the playoffs. It also means Miami will have their toughest road through the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Chicago added Derrick Rose, their former MVP, and you know he’s rested.

Indiana added an actual bench this season, a move that “rises the tide” for their team by eliminating the HUGE dropoff when the starters rest.

Brooklyn added the best (and worst) part of the Celtics roster, and can go 10 deep through the season.

And the-Knicks-if-things-go-right will be a better version of last year’s team. If health and threes are on their side, they can beat anyone.

This is the best the East has been in years going into the season. Bad news for Miami.

Dwyane Wade’s knee –

Boston Celtics v Miami Heat, Game 3

A storyline for the past two seasons, Wade’s knee is a year older with no viable back up to pick up the slack if things fall apart. Ray Allen is next in line, but he’s a really good role player at this point.

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We have seen the impact of a diminished Wade at various points the past two seasons. While the Heat won the past two seasons, they were pushed to the brink of elimination twice, rescued only when Wade overcame the pain.

Recent history shows the Heat can win with a limping Wade. Again, they are the two-time champs. But Wade’s knee is a sucker bet in Vegas. Works great when you hit it, but it’s too risky long term.

It’s ridiculously hard to Three Peat –

si3peat

As stated above, only a few of the 30 NBA teams have a legitimate shot to win the title. This year, me and Miss Cleo see eight and a half teams with true title hopes this season (the 4.5 in the East, plus the LA Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Houston Rockets). That gives each team a roughly 12% shot at winning it all. Miami defied the odds twice already, playing the odds suggest they won’t do it again. Only the Bulls (twice) and the Lakers have done it since anyone reading this has been alive.

Is the LeBron/Wade duo as dominant as Jordan/Pippen or Kobe/Shaq? Time will tell, but the crystal ball tells me no.

What do you think? Will Miami Three Peat? Stay tuned next week for my Finals prediction!

Comment(19)

  1. The Pacers still need a point guard, I think the Knicks take a considerable step back, the Nets I have to see how it translates, Chicago depends on health and if Jimmy Butler can take that step to be the legit 2nd guy. So even as the resident Heat hater, I see them winning the East. The whole thing I think Spurs shown they can beat them, The Clippers maybe….it really comes down to Wade’s knee.

    1. I like George Hill honestly. They don't need him to be Derrick Rose, he plays his role well. Upgrading from DJ Augustin to CJ Watson is the big win IMO. Now the team won't fall off a cliff when Hill sits. If Scola isn't dead, that's a huge win as well.

      Does Jimmy Butler need to be the 2nd guy? I'd put Deng and even, gulp, Boozer ahead of him. He needs to be Kawhi Leonard. Play good defense, make open shots, don't be the reason they lose.

      I'll never say the Heat have no chance. Just that the odds are against them.

      What do you realistically expect from your C's btw? Do you want them to tank, or gun for that 7-8 seed?

      1. Maybe he means just in relation to the other teams in the east…more specifically the top tier teams getting more better…I don' t know. They add Hardaway, Jr. , MWP and Bargnani will be there from the get go

        I see the Knicks pretty much this year where they ended up last year….top 4-5 seed and out in the 2nd round, all things being equal of course.

        Better question is where will Carmelo end up next year in Free Agency? I wouldn't mind seeing him stay in New York for the long haul.

  2. Although you mentioned it in passing, one of the big reasons they aren't going to three-peat is they were lucky to win it last year. Two coaching mistakes gave them the title.

    – Frank Vogel inexplicably leaving Hibbert out at the end of game 1, where Miami won by a Lebron layup in a completely open lane.
    – Every Miami fan thought it was over when San Antonio was up at the end of game six. Popovich over coached and left Duncan out on defense. On consecutive possessions with less than 25 seconds left, Miami missed, got the rebound (why is Duncan not in the game?) and made a follow-up shot.

    Of course, it's dumb to play woulda-coulda-shoulda, and any title team catches some breaks. But people talking about how dominate Miami is must not have actually watched the playoffs last year. IF Rose is healthy, the Bulls are strong in the areas that Miami is weak.

    1. Yeah as much as the season hinges on Wade's knee, Rose's will be just as important. He's already sitting out to rest it. Hard to predict the preseason, bc that could mean nothing, but you'd rather he be reporting no issues if you're a Bulls fan.

      Can't leave out Westbrook's knee in the West either. Basically, I want a camera following only knees this season. I think that's the most logical solution.

    2. "But people talking about how dominate Miami is must not have actually watched the playoffs last year."

      I think they may have been referring to how dominate they looked during their victories are were running on all cylinders. Here's a run down on the winning margin of victory of the Heat's playoff games last season:

      23,12,13,11,37,10,23,3,1,18,11,23,9,16,3,7 (12 wins by more than double digits, 6 by more than 15 points)

      That's an average margin of victory of 13.75 ppg with a record of 16-7. The only game the Heat really got crushed was that 36 point thrashing the Spurs put on them in game 3 of the Finals. Think the Pacers got them one time good, too.

      So maybe not dominate in Wins/Losses…but how they won when they won? They looked incredible.

      1. How do you drop all those numbers, give us some math solutions, then say you "think" the Pacers go them one time? Lol.

  3. I don't trust the Boston Nets. I can't call it, but I just don't see them being as good as they're propping themselves up to be. #Knickstape will cause so many grays this year. I don't think we're any good or any worst than last year though. Let's be honest, Bargnani is just STAT who can shoot a 3. So yeah, let's revisit that during after the All Star break lol

    The flip side is the Heat have the best player in the world. It's not going to be a cakewalk, but the road to the Finals shouldn't be. Not w/ all the young talent right now. So as much as I hate the Heat, I won't be surprised at another parade in South Beach.
    My recent post Shameless Self-Promotion and Athletes: Savvy or Tacky?

  4. Yeah as of right now, I am putting my money on MIA barring any injuries. Can't wait to see how Derek Rose handles things when he comes back. I believe he has a chip on his shoulders.

  5. As a Detroit fan, how do you not mention the fact that we made it rain like the Pour It Up video. The Pistons bought a team and currently have Twim Towers. Now you know we will easily upset all the teams you named above, because they all are choke artist except the Bulls (only with Rose)

    1. Lol, we made it rain, no doubt. I'm just happy we're interesting now. Be good, be REALLY bad, or be interesting. Nothing worse than a team not worth mentioning.

      LOB CITY MIDWEST!!!

  6. Still can't trust the Knicks :S!!!
    My heart is in the west, with my dear Lakers… But we have ZERO chance -_-'!
    As long as Miami doesn't win…

  7. Number three alone would be my main reason. I don't think people realize how hard it is to win ONE title more or less two in a row….and then 3?? Virtually impossible in this day and age….not saying it can't be done, but very improbable. They probably should not have won two, lol. Should be a good season, though.

    p.s. I'm still sick at ESPN ranking KB #25 , smh!

  8. OKC traded away their chance to win the title to Houston last year.
    Only way the Knicks win is if Carmelo is the best player in a Heat-Knicks series.

    Only 5-6 teams can win the title… and the soft-ass Clippers are not one of them!

    My recent post Strafe’s NFL Picks for Week 7

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